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When Data Falls Short: Trust Your Gut

Why Product Managers Should Trust Their Gut When Data Falls Short

As Product Managers, we’re often told to “let the data speak” and to rely on hard evidence to validate our hypotheses. And rightly so—data is a powerful tool for minimizing risk and understanding user behavior. However, there’s a vital piece of the product innovation puzzle that is often overlooked: intuition. When the right data isn’t available or doesn’t exist, your gut can be your most valuable ally.

In fact, some of the most transformative innovations we celebrate today were born in moments when data was either nonexistent or irrelevant. Let’s explore why Product Managers shouldn’t shy away from trusting their instincts when navigating uncharted waters.


Data Is a Compass, Not a Crystal Ball

Marty Cagan, author of Inspired, emphasizes the limitations of relying solely on data. He writes, “Data is essential, but it only tells you about the past. If you want to invent the future, you have to look beyond the data.” Data can show us what has worked before, but it rarely points to what will work in the future, especially when you’re venturing into unexplored territory.

When a Product Manager tries to innovate in a space that’s new or undefined, historical data often falls short. Imagine being the first to propose something like the iPhone. What data would have validated that hypothesis? None. Yet, Steve Jobs famously said, “People don’t know what they want until you show it to them.”


Visionary Thinking Often Precedes Data

Some of the most game-changing innovations weren’t built on data—they were built on a deep understanding of human needs and the courage to make bold decisions. Steve Jobs’ intuition about user experience led to products that redefined industries. Had Apple waited for market research to prove demand, the iPhone might never have happened.

Similarly, Pawel Huryn, product leader and author, argues that “great product managers are great storytellers—they imagine a better world and then find a way to make it real.” In the early stages of product development, storytelling and vision often fill the gaps where data cannot.


When to Trust Your Gut

Trusting your gut doesn’t mean ignoring data—it means knowing when it isn’t enough. Here are some scenarios where intuition can be invaluable:

  1. When entering uncharted markets: No historical data exists for truly innovative ideas.
  2. When experimenting with new paradigms: Early-stage products often lack the metrics to guide decisions.
  3. When responding to qualitative insights: User interviews and anecdotal evidence sometimes reveal truths that numbers can’t.

Pawel Huryn puts it succinctly: “Your gut feeling is your subconscious mind processing years of experience, knowledge, and observations. It’s not irrational; it’s informed.”


Balancing Data and Intuition

The key is to strike a balance. Use data when it’s available and relevant, but don’t let the absence of perfect data paralyze you. Great Product Managers are not just analysts—they’re visionaries who can navigate ambiguity and take calculated risks.

As Marty Cagan reminds us, “At the end of the day, your job is to solve problems in a way that creates value for your customers and your company. Don’t let data become an excuse for inaction.”


Conclusion

Data is critical to good product management, but it’s not the be-all and end-all. When the path ahead is unclear, your gut—honed by experience, empathy, and intuition—can light the way. Trust it. After all, every breakthrough product started as an unproven hypothesis that someone dared to believe in.

As you navigate the challenges of your product journey, remember: innovation doesn’t come from what’s already known—it comes from imagining what could be.

This post is licensed under CC BY 4.0 by the author.

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